The appearance of West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin at the No Labels town hall event in New Hampshire this week has thrown Democrats—and even anti-Trump Republicans—into a tizzy.
The bipartisan organization is considering fielding its own ticket made up of a Democrat and a Republican to offer voters an alternative to the traditional party nominees. Joe Manchin appears to be at the top of the list of potential presidential candidates on the “unity ticket.”
No Labels is polling to help decide whether a third party run makes sense—the organization says it does not want to be a spoiler—and Manchin has not yet decided what he wants to do. But just the possibility of another option has the left panicking.
The No Labels critics believe a Manchin candidacy would siphon voters away from Biden and give Trump a victory in 2024. Liberal New York Times columnist Gail Collins attacked Manchin personally.
“Manchin seems to be flirting with (running on No Labels), which could lead to Donald Trump’s return to the White House. And give the senator from West Virginia a label I can’t mention in a family newspaper.”
Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen said No Labels does not have a path to win, but it will affect the outcome. “It’s a path to spoiling the election for Joe Biden and electing Donald Trump.”
Republican political consultant and Trump critic Karl Rove wrote in the Wall Street Journal, “There is little question that a three-way contest involving Mr. Manchin would exacerbate Team Biden’s problems with key groups.”
All this hand wringing reflects the inconvenient truth that the Democratic Party has an incredibly weak ticket.
Polls show Biden under water. For example, FiveThirtyEight has his approval rating at 41 percent and his disapproval rating at 55 percent. An ABC News/Washington Post poll in May found that two-thirds of Americans believe Biden, 80, is too old for another term.
Biden won in 2020 largely because voters rejected Trump, not because they were enthusiastic about Biden, and that lack of enthusiasm continues to weigh down his re-election chances. But Democrats are worried about pushing Biden aside because his likely replacement, Vice President Kamala Harris, is also unpopular (40 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove, according to FiveThirtyEight).
So, part of the winning strategy to prop up Biden-Harris is to attack No Labels and Manchin as spoilers. But my question is, spoilers of what? Polls consistently show most voters want someone else. A CNN poll found that 33 percent of voters had a favorable view of Trump and 32 percent for Biden, but 31 percent viewed neither Biden nor Trump favorably.
In fairness, a Manchin presidential run may well cut into Biden’s numbers. Rove writes that, for example, “If 1.1 percent of Mr. Biden’s black supporters in Georgia stay home or vote No Labels next year, that would wipe out the 2020 Peach State’s victory margin of 11,779 votes.”
If that happens in Georgia and a couple of other key states, Manchin will inevitably get the blame from Biden supporters if Trump is elected, but that will be only part of the story. If Democrats are honest with themselves, they must also acknowledge that their weak ticket opened the door to a third party challenge.